At 4:30 pm today the Assiniboine River level was 1171.83 feet above sea level measured at First Street. This is within a couple of inches of the level at which the river is considered over-bank.
Levels in the Shellmouth Reservoir continue to rise rapidly. In response to this the outflow will be increased which will result in downstream levels also increasing. According to the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre the first peak is likely to arrive sometime between April 10 – 17th. The current estimate is now 1176.80 feet above sea level measured at First Street. This is a level where the plug would be added to the dike at the Grand Valley Road (Provincial Road #459).
Ice on the river has begun to break up and in the next day or two will begin to move with the current. This increases the risk of ice damming which may lead to a sudden but short term rise in river levels.
In preparation for this developing situation, the City has been sealing manholes, readying pumps, preparing to close outfalls, monitoring the situation and generally getting ready.
On April 2, Sioux Valley Dakota Nation declared a State of Local Emergency due to flooding and evacuated some residents. The Red Cross report that they have registered 25 people and relocated them to Brandon